Title

V. V. Ovchinnikov

Reliability of the results of regional and prospecting works according to simulation logic-probabilistic modeling and their application

Describes the principles of simulation logical-probabilistic modeling the process of reproduction the mineral raw material base and modeling results. Shows the equivalence of the true results of prospecting works and the validity of their results, the conjugacy of geological hazards. The simulation results are compared with the characteristics of prospecting and exploration in foreign countries, in the territory of the USSR in 1959–1987 and Russia since 2002. Representative statistics reports on Soviet territory shows the reliability of the end results of works on every type of mineral resources consistent with modeling. The data obtained is used in long-term planning prospecting and exploration in the developed and prepared for development of mining and industrial regions.
Key words: simulation logical-probabilistic modeling, process reproduction of the mineral raw material base, regional and search stages, confirmobility estimates, the accuracy of the final results, geological risks, long-term planning.